Bowl Game Picks

PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL Birmingham, Ala.
Dec. 22, 1 p.m. (ESPN2) Cincinnati (9-3) vs. Southern Miss (7-5)

Cincinnati should be expected to win this game with a lame duck coaching USM and Brian Kelly looking to impress to land one of the remaining open jobs. Plus my only personal interaction with a USM grad (and former football player there) has lead me to believe steroids are part of the natural ecosystem. Even with such a chemical disadvantage, Bearcats roll: Bearcats 35, Golden Eagles 17.

NEW MEXICO BOWL Albuquerque, N.M.
Dec. 22, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN) New Mexico (8-4) vs. Nevada (6-6)
Last season: San Jose State 20, New Mexico 12

Reason #512 that being a "bowl team" is about as impressive as the title "air breather". This bowl exists to "showcase" a football team from New Mexico against some eligible bowl team. You can see it worked out well last year. Nevada 27, New Mexico 24.

LAS VEGAS BOWL Las Vegas
Dec. 22, 8 p.m. (ESPN) BYU (10-2) vs. UCLA (6-6)
Last season: No. 19 BYU 38, Oregon 8

This bowl seems to exist to allow BYU to take out its aggressions for not being part of the football establishment on a crappy PAC-10 team. You can see how much the win over Oregon last year both boosted BYU and hurt Oregon going into this season. UCLA made the right call in firing Dorrell despite the rash of injuries this year. The only game they lost directly because of the injury situation was Notre Dame (still an inexcusable loss). BYU comes in looking to avenge a loss in a game they dominated. Also, the location of the bowl game is a natural advantage to BYU since as a Mormon institution, its players will be less likely to need to have "what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas". Unfortunately for the Bruins, the outcome of this game will likely be something they want to leave behind. BYU 45, UCLA 16

HAWAII BOWL Honolulu, Hawaii
Dec. 23, 8 p.m. (ESPN) East Carolina (7-5) vs. Boise State (10-2)

Boise State is a fairly good team. ECU is fairly mediocre. Boise played its last game on this very field. Whoop-de-freakin'-doo. Broncos 34, Pirates 25

MOTOR CITY Detroit
Dec. 26, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) Central Michigan (8-5) vs. Purdue (7-5)

Perhaps my favorite bowl game subspecies is the decent "Have-not" team playing the crappy "Have" team. The non-BCS schools salivate at the chance to show how they really should get more respect from the BCS schools. The joke of the whole thing is that if you have a .500 record in a BCS conference, you are virtually guaranteed (apologies go out to South Carolina) an extra month of practice to jump start spring drills. Most of these coaches could actually care less if they win the game (see BYU vs. Oregon from last season). Chippewas 25, Boilermakers 24

HOLIDAY BOWL San Diego
Dec. 27, 8 p.m. (ESPN) Arizona State (10-2) vs. Texas (9-3)

Back when BYU was a regular participant, the Holiday Bowl was one of the most entertaining bowl games on the docket. These days this bowl treats us to a PAC 10 team that is either feeling slighted for missing out on the BCS or giddy that they are spared from the ignominy of the Emerald Bowl. The Big 12 team that shows up is a wild card. On paper, Texas has no business being in this game. I just can shake the visions of how ASU had BCS opportunity in front of them and then crapped the bed in their last 4 games, which they could have either won all or lost all. A truly powerful team doesn't rely on Mike Stoops' horrendous choices to win that game against Arizona. Texas 27, ASU 23.

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL Orlando, Fla.
Dec. 28, 5 p.m. (ESPN) Boston College (10-3) vs. Michigan State (7-5)

My other favorite bowl subspecies is the "contractual mismatch". This is a game where the conference choice hierarchy gives a bowl choice X from conference A and choice Y from conference B, where Y-X>2. Michigan State is a crap team from a crap conference. The ACC also sucks, but BC is so much better than MSU. BC 42, MSU15.

TEXAS BOWL Houston
Dec. 28, 8 p.m. (NFL Network) TCU (7-5) vs. Houston (8-4)

Start time says it all for this game. Original programming for a time slot where no one normally watches the NFL Network. TCU gets a slight nod due to coaching stability. TCU 24, Houston 20.

EMERALD BOWL San Francisco
Dec. 28, 8:30 p.m. (ESPN) Maryland (6-6) vs. Oregon State (8-4)

Crappy ACC team travels cross-county to take on PAC 10 team in a city that could care less about college football. The highlight of this game is the commercials from the bowl sponsor. The draw in accepting this bid for Maryland was the savings alone for Friedgen's ever expanding hunger for never ending snack food bowls. Oregon State 31, Maryland 24.

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL Charlotte
Dec. 29, 1 p.m. (ESPN) UConn (9-3) vs. Wake Forest (8-4)

Wake Forrest has lived on the edge the last 2 years and Jim Grobe almost parlayed that into a lucrative contract from Arkansas. I guess he has bought himself long term security at Wake, but it does seem to suggest that he knows he can't really compete with the big boys. UConn lived a similarly charmed existence this season until WVU stomped their balls. UConn 20, Wake 19.

LIBERTY BOWL Memphis, Tenn.
Dec. 29, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN) Mississippi State (7-5) vs. UCF (10-3)

Most folks watching this game will be expecting to see Kevin Smith attempt to break the single season rushing record (which is crap cuz Barry Sanders did it in 2 fewer games). State's underrated defense will be able to mostly contain Smith and likely keep the record in Sander's rightful hands. State's utter contempt for offense will keep UCF in the game, but don't expect O'Leary to giftwrap two touchdowns late in the game like Ole Miss did for the Croomster. UCF 19, Mississippi State 13.

ALAMO BOWL San Antonio
Dec. 29, 8 p.m. (ESPN) Penn State (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (7-5)

Texas A&M is finally rid of Coach Fran, but who the heck knows how this will turn out. Joe Pa hopes to gain a cheap one on Bowden, but more on that later.... PSU 17, A&M 15.

INDEPENDENCE BOWL Shreveport, La.
Dec. 30, 8 p.m. (ESPN) Colorado (6-6) vs. Alabama (6-6)
Last season: Oklahoma State 34, Alabama 31

Another year, new coach, $4 M less in bank account, Bama is back in Shreveport in the world's worst bowl game destination. Shreveport isn't even that close to New Orleans. I guess it is possible folks get drunk there and flash boobs too, but with cable and the internet these days, is it really necessary to travel to see those things? Bama 23, Colorado 17.

ARMED FORCES BOWL Fort Worth, Texas
Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m. (ESPN) Cal (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3)

Air Force will play smart, disciplined ball. Tedford will decide whether to let his quarterback coach the team or just do it himself. Falcons 35, Bears 21.

SUN BOWL El Paso, Texas
Dec. 31, 2 p.m.(CBS) USF (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)

Cons against Oregon: Starting QB named Leaf, Zero confidence in rest of Offense, Ready to look to next year.
Pros for Oregon: Phil Knight supplies kick ass gear.
USF 42, Oregon 17

HUMANITARIAN BOWL Boise, Idaho
Dec. 31, 2 p.m. (ESPN2) Fresno State (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)

The Blue Turf bowl without Boise State is like having the New Mexico Bowl without New Mexico. Fresno State will actually try to win this game. Georgia Tech at least will not be handcuffed by Chan Gailey any more. Georgia Tech 26, Fresno State 23.

MUSIC CITY BOWL Nashville
Dec. 31, 4 p.m. (ESPN) Florida State (7-5) vs. Kentucky (7-5)

At last. 36 (and counting) Seminoles will not be making the trip to Nashville. If Bobby Bowden were still alive, this cheating scandal never would have made it to the light of day. Seriously, there are very few coaches that would still have a job after about 1/3 of their team cheated and were caught. If Kentucky weren't Kentucky, I would feel pretty safe in picking them for this game. On the plus side for the Wildcats, I am guessing Jimbo Fisher is going to start drinking on the job to hopefully get fired so that he can pursue other opportunities post haste. If you see him call 3 straight "statue of liberty plays" you will know he has mentally checked out. Kentucky 49, FSU 20.

INSIGHT BOWL Tempe, Ariz.
Dec. 31, 5:30 p.m. (NFL Network) Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)

Just when you think, you have peered into the crappiest bowl match up, here comes the Insight Bowl. Indiana is still playing for the memory of their coach and Gundy is insane. That said, the Big Ten still sucks. OSU 44, Indiana 14.

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL Atlanta
Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4)

Another of the Contractual Mismatch Bowls. A mediocre SEC Squad against a top tier ACC squad. Plus you have the personal history between the Bowden family and Auburn. Clemson 35, Auburn 31.

The rest of the picks will come in a later post.